As I write this, Coinmarketcap shows there are 19,999 listed crypto-coins in the world. 20,000th new coin will happen within hours.
I still find it incredible that there are 20,000 listed cryptos, so let’s look at what this means.
20,000 coins means 20,000 separate crypto projects. 20,000 ideas who have become listed for funding and trading in this ecosystem that is really just 5 years old. 20,000 teams focused on building a project.
Obviously too many of these are total bullshit. Some are scams and some are pure fantasy. Yet there are thousands of ideas who who received investment to justify a listing.
The history of the every tribe, species, technology, country and industry is based on the laws of natural selection. Massive trial and failure. And with every attempt, something is learnt, eventually leading to a flourishing dominant group of winners.
I remember in the early 2000s when there were claimed to be 10,000 social media companies. When MySpace, Bibo and others were dominant. The market evolved. Bebo was sold to AOL by its founders for a $1bn and was worthless within two years. Murdoch won the fight for MySpace and it failed within three years. Are there 50 social media companies today?
The Next Evolution
20,000 coins have created the foundation for the future. 99% will die to have a future. We have had three clear strategic cycles or growth waves.
- 2010–2015 with a boom peaking in Dec 2013. Driven by Bitcoin.
- 2016–2019 with a boom peaking in Dec 2019. Driven by Etherem/ICO.
- 2020–2023 with a boom peaking in Nov 2021. Driven by DeFi/Web3.
All finishing with 20,000 listed coins. 523 exchanges. 300 million wallet owners.
These ‘cycles’ are really just part of the ‘pioneer’ wave of crypto with the last ‘DeFi’ boom like the ‘Dot Com’ boom finishing in 2000.
The $950bn market cap today will fluctuate over the coming couple of years as probably 99%, ie 19,800, of all Alt coins and stablecoins lose their support.
This is how markets always develop. In reality, we are less than 10% of the market development.
It’s been 12 years to get to 200 credible projects. From Bitcoin, the strong coins in the Top 100 to maybe 50 new projects who haven’t had their hyperbolic growth yet.
In half the time, 6 years, this market will grow from $800–1,000bn [10%] to $8–9trillion [90%]. 2024–2029.
There will be two mini-cycles;
2024–2026 focused on pioneering new securities related projects. Lots of new coins. Tons of regulatory pressure. Yet this Asset-Token market will be pioneered. EVERY major financial institution will get involved or watch with interest. Another 20,000 coins.
2027–2029 where every asset will be rapidly tokenized. Every share on every stockmarket. Properties, Bonds. Every platform will become blockchain based. E-commerce will be transaction only in crypto [stablecoins]. 100,000s of asset backed tokens with tens of trillions of transactional value.
And we will look back on today, with our 20,000 coins and laugh how it was so small. So limited. Just like we do at the old Dot Com boom.