When will crypto boom?

Its the question on everyones lips today as the market is so quiet.

The only reference we have is the four-year cycle which crypto seems to follow.

If the cycle is 2015–18 then 2019–2022, then 2023 is equivalent to 2019 and boy it seems like this. A form of crypto-winter when the weak companies die and the next leaders emerge.

I think the next cycle will be powered by large financial institutions who will focus on the top ten tradable coins, ie not stablecoins.

I think they are all positioned to do this today in terms of accounts open with brokers like Fidelity, DBS, etc. All they need is for the gun to go off.

The Bitcoin ETFs in the US are a likely catalyst for growth as they could add enough investment to overwhelm the naturally low trading today. I think this will happen in the next 6 months.

The bitcoin halving in April 2024 is another excuse for a rally.

But the boom?

There are rallies and booms. Rallies are market moves up to what becomes a price ceiling on Bitcoin. All market rallies have been started by Bitcoin as its 50% of the capitalisation.

2020 saw a rally in crypto to push the bitcoin ceiling of $12,000. It flirted with it. Then broke through at the end of the year setting up the boom of 2021.

The previous ATH may have been $66,000 on Bitcoin yet this is like the 2017 ATH of $20,000. 20k was an extreme price spike rather than a market boom. This is why people considered the market ceiling to be $12,000, rather than $20,000, and when $12k was breached, the market boomed.

I think the market ceiling today is $45,000. I can see us growing from this $25,000–$32,000 channel of 2023 to playing with $45,000 in 2024. Yet I think $45,000 will be hard to break through.

When the institutional volume really pumps, especially from Asia, I see $45k breached and the industry flying past $66k. In 2020, the price bust through $12k and was $63k a couple of months later. Remember this was then a trillion dollar asset! Thats $1,000,000,000,000. Alot of zeros.

I think the boom will see Bitcoin reaching $150,000 and maybe spiking over $200k for a bit before retreating back. The big alt coins will follow.

When?

The $64,000 question.

4-year cycle theory says the boom to $150k happens in 2025. Its less than 2 years away so horray.

I want to leave you with a scary thought.

This market boom will be driven by big institutions who have $100trillion+ in investments. Interest rates look high for a while. Bonds look sick. Recession looks likely. Therefore its quite possible for them to deploy 0.1% of assets or $100bil into crypto.

With a market value of $1trillion, thats just 10% yet its not.

$100bn will go into less than 10 coins with 90% going into Bitcoin and Ethereum. Probably 50% into Bitcoin. $50bn.

There is not $50bn worth of Bitcoin to be bought and held. If this was purchased then the price would skyrocket as people would not be selling. $50bn in bitcoin could make the price rocket through $100,000.

This could happen in Dec 2023, Mar 2024, anytime.

One aggressive hedge fund deploying $20billion into bitcoin could drive the price past $45,000 creating a panic bullrun. Boomtime. Tomorrow.

No-one knows. All claims are guesses.

The only likely future is $150,000 BTC. Major cryptos will follow. Institutions will power this. And it could have in 2023, 2024 or 2025.