Will Crypto collapse further?
Anyone owning crypto today must wonder how far can this market collapse? Here is my view… Monday 20th June 2022. 6.30am.
Firstly, I must make a huge disclaimer as no-one knows why the market has collapsed so far or has any strong clarity about the future. This is just information, not advice.
Where is the floor?
The technical traders follow charts to make predictions and strategies. They talk of flags, Moving Averages and Floors.
A ‘Floor’ is when the market is supporting a price because a majoring of buying thinks this is a good price to buy at. A ‘Floor’ also has a major impact on the structure, strength and systems in a market.
Look at the crypto market today. In the crypto world, we only look at Bitcoin for a floor when the market goes down. From its peak in November, we thought the floor could be US$40,000 odd. Then $30,000. And today we wonder if it’s $20,000.
Also note that the floor is not one number, 20,000 means 10% either way- 18,000–22,000.
The reason there is impact is how it impacts market sentiment and the attraction of investment. A ‘floor’ means people are buying. And there has to be strong reasons why people are buying vs the reasons people are selling.
What about the $20,000 floor?
This is a big one. It was the previous All-Time-High of the 2017 boom. It was the key ceiling breached in Dec 2020 which then led to the 2021 boom.
My prediction [I maybe proven wrong tomorrow] is that this will be the floor. Alot of people will disagree and alot of people will want it to go down to $12,000, the next major support level. I think there will be a major tussle between buyers and sellers at this level yet it will settle here.
Just like 2017!
In September 2017, we could not believe how much Bitcoin had boomed. Within a couple of years, it has rocked from under $400 to $4,000. And off to the side, a new asset called Ethereum had gone mad, after a very ugly 2016, from $10 in Jan to $300.
Then a word ‘ICO’ caught everyones greed radar and three months later the market was up 500%.
A year later, Bitcoin was back down at…. $4000.
This trough-peak-trough falls at $20,000 today. It’s why I think this is the floor.
A floor is all about buyers overwhelming sellers. Big trading groups will try to push the market lower through the floor as the next strong level is $12,000. Negative news either within the industry or wider financial world will try to catalyst selling volume.
Yet there are buyers. And $20,000 is the most credible floor. Traders must see this level as one where a 50–100% bounce is very possible.
More importantly, there is a tidalwave of institutional money sitting on the sidelines. No-one is confident about the recession-worried equities and property markets.
The general view about Bitcoin is that a $2trillion market capitalisation is justifiable, $100,000. Its true believers will multiply the value by 5.
This view hasn’t changed so Bitcoin is probably the only asset on the planet, other than precious metals and commodities, that has a positive price vision over the next couple of years. Its going to appeal to enough institutional money to support Bitcoin.
So I think $20,000 is the floor. We need to see if others, with much larger trading balls that me, also believe this. And is the market stops here, this is the level to start accumulating again.
Hope this helps.